I hope all of you are having a great summer. Markets have started to build some positive momentum since the grueling first half of 2022. The best news we’ve heard this month is that the CPI inflation dropped a little, and the intriguing news is that we are in a “technical” recession. One month of lower inflation is not a trend, but obviously lower energy prices has a lot to do with this.
Last month, I had the opportunity to hear from Ben Bernanke and Marc Seidner of PIMCO. It was interesting to hear the factors that affect the business cycle matter more than the cycle itself. The post-World War II era was when we last encountered a recession and inflation, when the war economy was being converted to civilian economy. There wasn't much supply back then to support the pent-up demand, but inflation, which hit 18%, went away quickly as people adjusted their spending.
“Sound monetary policy is taking the punch bowl away before the party gets out of control.” — Ben Bernanke
Although technically we are in a recession already, the strong labor market puts us in unique territory. In every recession since WWII, the unemployment rate either climbed prior to the declared recession or rose during the period when a recession was declared. Bernanke emphasized the importance of stable monetary policy that is backed by a fiscal policy to keep the labor market strong, as we did with the fiscal response to the pandemic through stimulus and business support. Today, the labor market is still strong and inflation is still high, so the Fed should continue raising the interest rate until at least the end of the year.
TRENDS
In Q2 earning reports, almost 75% of companies reported surprisingly positive results. However, among notable trends were an early warning from Walmart that profit margins for the full year could to drop to 13%, due to consumers cutting back on discretionary items. When big-box retailers report earning this week, it could show an important trend of consumer spending: Walmart may be benefiting from a consumer trade-down effect as value shopping increases, and Target could be facing more incremental pressure because it is more heavily geared toward discretionary categories.
The labor shortage continues, but it’s interesting to note from Lyft’s earning report that drivers are coming back for supplemental income to offset higher inflationary costs.
In the first half of 2022, investors pulled money from taxable bond funds, shifting money into U.S. large stock funds while pulling away from growth categories. They also put cash into alternative strategy and commodity funds amid the turmoil in the stock and bond market, exited the technology and financial sector, and shifted to energy and natural resources. In the two weeks prior to the announcement of the Inflation Protection Act on July 27, clean-energy funds had estimated net outflows of $223 million. Since the climate deal was announced, investors have rushed into this group of 23 funds. From July 28 through Aug. 10, clean-energy funds attracted estimated net inflows of $433.6 million.
OPPORTUNITIES
Last month I pointed out that if inflation persist, alternatives, cash and certain stocks would be the way to go. With a strong U.S. dollar, a foreign trip gets you more for your buck. We could expect the energy demand to continue, particularly natural gas, which could be in your alternatives strategy. Short-term bonds provide a good diversification option as interest rates start to level off.
Two important bills that were recently passed — the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS and Science ACT — firm up the long-term trends.
The climate investment provisions of the inflation bill greatly support renewable energy initiatives: Companies in energy storage and hydrogen fuel cells and nuclear companies benefit from tax credits. The extension of electric vehicle credits included tough new regulations on critical minerals, especially lithium to be sourced from the U.S. or free trade partners, which should benefit chemical and mineral companies who produce these raw materials. Also, the provision for Medicare to be able to negotiate drug prices could negatively affect drug manufacturers’ revenues.
Because many renewable energy companies and technologies are relatively new, a clean-energy fund will be more volatile than most diversified funds in your portfolio. That’s likely to continue until these companies have reached a more stable growth trajectory, and there has been a shakeout of early winners and losers. Until then, the best way to ensure long-term success and mitigate volatility is to choose a diversified clean-energy fund, rather than trying to pick a particular winning stock.
I want point out the chart below to show the U.S.’s increased geopolitical interest in Taiwan’s autonomy. Foundries are the silicon wafers that are used to manufacture chips. Taiwan Semiconductor Company (TSMC), the one company that manufactures more than half the world’s production, creates a high concentration risk. Despite China’s sustained lobbying effort, CHIPS and Science Act was finally passed and could probably address the geopolitical risk in chip manufacturing.
Although there seems to be a slight slowing of the demand for semiconductors currently, these are the marvels of the modern world that are going to run everything from cars to electronics to communication devices. Semiconductors, along with renewable energy, offer great long-term investment opportunities.
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