One recent article stated that there are no undervalued or overvalued assets, meaning the
current market price is the fair value price based on what we know. The change in expectation is what makes the price move. Even well-diversified 60/40 portfolios — 60% stocks and 40% bonds — are approaching losses of 20%, leading to something called the "TINA Effect," a phenomenon in which stocks rise only because investors see no viable alternative place to put their money.
One of the interesting data points in the August CPI report was energy prices in the U.S. As
gasoline prices were trending down, electricity and utility prices were moving up, contributing
to inflation. U.S. power production is primarily based on natural gas, and demand for it has shot up household energy prices to almost 100% in New England and New York.
Excerpt from August 2022 CPI - Seasonally adjusted changes from the preceding month
Source: Bureau of labor statistics
One of the big stories right now is that the U.S. is set to become a liquid natural gas (LNG) export powerhouse, as more and more export terminals are built. Certainly, Europe is likely to be a major importer from the U.S., as flows from Russia collapse.
Trends
Volatility will remain until economic activities make a meaningful and sustained rebound and inflation returns to 2%.
The U.S. dollar is on its strongest run in two decades, adding to concerns about the outlook for corporate earnings.
Crude oil prices reached their lowest levels since January, ending the quarter at $77.1/barrel. With China reopening and a potential production cut, crude prices could go up. Natural gas, particularly LNG, will remain in high demand until early 2023.
The effective federal funds rate stands at 3-3.25 and is expected to be at 4.4% by the year end. The current 10 Yr. US treasury is at about 4%.
However, general expectations are that GDP will remain sluggish and won't start to reaccelerate until the second half of 2023, and inflation will begin to moderate over the next few months and subside in 2023.
The labor market report is expected on Friday, which will reset the expectation of interest rates, because any good news is still bad news for the market.
Opportunities
With the expectation that inflation will moderate and monetary tightening will end after two more interest rate hikes, long-dated notes and, subsequently, bonds are options for your diversified portfolio. The year’s massive decline in prices across the bond market has led to a huge rise in bond yields, making them attractive to income investors. I’d advise you to build your bond portfolio in a tax-protected account, such as a 401(k) or IRA.
If you haven’t already, Series I saving bonds, which have utmost certainty, are a great option for returns in this volatile phase – read the opportunities section of September newsletter for all other options in LNG (Shell:SHEL, Total Energies: TTE) and transportation and entertainment sectors (Delta Airline: DAL, UBER, LYFT, Caesars Entertainment:CZR).
Equities are trading at a deep discount to their intrinsic valuation. The current level of undervaluation at 0.79 (or 21% discount) is the biggest discount since the emergence of the pandemic, when the price/fair value dropped to 0.77 (or 23% discount) on March 23, 2020.
Wide-moat, high-quality companies, such as MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, CRM, and ADBE, are all best positioned to weather a potential recession based on their long-term, durable competitive advantages.
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